Europe

Rejection of EU necessary for Yanukovych’s Survival Beyond 2015

Published

11 years ago

December 3, 2013

Is there anybody left in the Eurasia-watching community in the West that has not condemned Ukraine for suspending preparations for agreements that would have taken closer into the EU’s fold?

Until recently this community had expected Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych to enter history as “the man who has brought Ukraine into Europe” by signing the Association Agreement (AA) and Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) at the two-day Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius this week. But that was thwarted, as many Western experts have it, by “imperialist” Russia strong-arming Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych into an 11th hour about-face.

The decision has created a backlash in Ukraine, where the parliamentary opposition now wants Yanukovych impeached for state treason. Thousands of protesters have hit streets of Kiev in a pitch to force a change of mind in their president. As a recent poll shows, even 47 percent of supporters of Yanukovych’s Party of Regions support Ukraine’s association with EU.

So why would a leader up for re-election in less than 15 months from now balk at granting the wishes of his own constituents? Should he not at least have put this issue of tantamount importance to vote in a referendum?

The short answer is: It’s the economy, stupid.

Viktor Yanukovych Ukraine European Union

Photo: news.kievukraine.info

Russia imports more goods from Ukraine than the entirety of Europe, according to the Ukrainian government, while supplying almost two-thirds of gas that Ukraine consumes. Many of these goods are produced in eastern Ukraine, which together with Crimea, represents the power base for Yanukovych and his supporters.

Russia has already made it painfully clear that the billions that the Ukrainian economy has already lost because of recent trade restrictions introduced by Moscow will only be the beginning if Kiev signs the AA and DCFTA.

EU officials claim Russian officials told Ukraine that introducing EU requirements would have cost as much as $100 billion, while Russia cutting off trade and imposing other restrictions on Ukraine would have hurt the country to the tune $500 billion, Reuters has reported.

And even though the EU knows Russia would punish Ukraine economically, it has shied away from offering a comprehensive package to compensate for Kiev’s potential losses.

As former Clinton administration adviser Andrew Weiss has rightly put it, “What the EU has come up with is a kind of partnership on the cheap.”

But suppose Moscow didn’t act on its national interest in anchoring its post-Soviet neighbors. Let’s also imagine that Moscow would for some reason keep in place trade perks favoring Kiev, even though that would mean its producers being exposed to EU goods re-exported onto the Russian market through Ukraine.

Even then Ukraine could still not afford westward integration on the terms the EU is offering.

By Yanukovych’s assessment, Ukraine needs $160 billion to shift to European standards by 2017, as required by the proposed agreements with EU. Yanukovych is most probably exaggerating, but even if the cost was 10 times smaller, it would still be a hefty sum for a nation that is set to run a budget deficit of more than6.5 this year. On top of that, the IMF is reportedly refusing to issue the loan that Ukraine needs to prop up its economy, unless Kiev doubles gas prices for consumers.

One has to ask, would leaders in the EU double gas prices for their population and divert billions of dollars needed to pay pensioners and public servants to spend on reaching somebody else’s expectations only a little more than one year before an election?

Loss at the February 2015 presidential elections for Yanukovych would not just mean an end to his tenure, but also the loss of his and his allies’ business assets and possible jail time. After all, that’s what he has subjected former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko to. Why should the next leader of Ukraine treat him any differently?

If Yanukovych were to sign the EU agreements as they stand, the economy would suffer and he would probably lose to whichever rival candidate arch-foe Tymoshenko gives her backing in 2015.

Having lost part of his core supporters over the pain inflicted on Ukraine’s economy and budget by a combination of Russia’s punitive measures and costs incurred by bringing Ukraine’s standards in line with EU’s, the incumbent would still fail to win enough voters among the pro-Western crowd, who largely hate his guts.

In short, the Ukrainian president’s decision to suspend the EU drive is the rational choice of a politician concerned with his own survival.

In contrast, if Yanukovych were to enter Ukraine into the Russian-led Customs Union, he could at least count on enough loans and gas discounts from Russia to prop the economy up long enough to win the 2015 election.

And yet Yanukovych knows from experience that siding with Russia, which seeks to anchor Ukraine to itself, has its disadvantages. Upon his inauguration in February 2010, Yanukovych undertook a number of steps to accommodate Russia.

These included cancellation of his predecessor’s campaign for recognition of the Holodomor famine of the early 1930s, suspension of Ukraine’s drive for NATO membership and an agreement to extend the stay of Russia’s Black Sea fleet until 2042.

The overtures made to Russian leaders early in Yanukovych’s presidency have achieved little, in the opinion of his aides, other than a modest discount for gas. The perceived failure to re-ignite the relationship prompted Ukraine’s deputy Prime Minister Valery Khroshkovsky to quip that “it all started as light flirtation, but ended in hardcore porn.”

Yanukovych is therefore most likely to continue balancing between EU and Russia – a policy his mentor and former president Leonid Kuchma described with the Russian saying about “a smart calf sucking milk from two cows.”

His hope for now must be that the trilateral talks between EU, Russia and Ukraine that he has proposed will allow him to somehow integrate into the Western European economic space while preserving the perks of trading with Russia.

Whether, however, EU and Russia will continue put up with Yanukovych playing them off one another is another matter.

First Appeared on: RIA Novosti, Republished following the terms of use.

Europe

Barcelona and Athens: cities that will leave an everlasting impression

Published

8 months ago

April 30, 2024

Andra Tudor

Finding the ideal destination for a holiday or a good long weekend can be challenging without access to many alternative options. Luckily, there are cities that need no introduction to know that they hold the solution; such is the case with Barcelona, in Spain, and Athens, in Greece, which you should always have at the top of your list of potential places to visit.

Barcelona, a city you’ll never forget

Barcelona is where you can find everything to make the most of your time and live unique experiences. Just go online and search for a city guide of Barcelona to review everything and start planning your trip.

The help of a good website

Tourism blogs and websites are an excellent alternative to virtually explore Barcelona and learn more about places to visit, public transport schedules, dining options, hotels and accommodations, and other useful information to make your visit more enjoyable.

The key lies in planning

With good planning, you’ll not only find splendid places to spend wonderful moments but also save money and get great recommendations to make your trip and stay enjoyable.

Park Güell: a must-visit

Barcelona stands out for its incredible attractions, among which Park Güell shines. Just read more about this interesting place to fall in love with it and make this visit mandatory.

What is Park Güell?

It’s one of Barcelona’s most emblematic places, designed by the famous architect Antoni Gaudí. Originally conceived as a housing development and later converted into a public park.

Architectural and natural elements

The main entrance is flanked by two modernist pavilions, with a staircase leading to the famous hypostyle hall and a central square with a panoramic view of Barcelona. Additionally, it features over 17 hectares of gardens, viaducts, and winding paths, integrating architecture with the natural landscape.

Cultural Heritage

Park Güell is part of UNESCO’s World Heritage and is classified as a Cultural Interest Site of Spain.

Athens: a journey to the past

Another city that will surely surprise you with its cultural and historical legacy is Athens, Greece, where you can enjoy impressive Hellenic ruins. It’s advisable to visit an Athens travel guide on the internet before you go to learn about everything and better organise your visit.

Historical richness

With over 3,000 years of history, Athens is the cradle of Western civilization and is home to ancient monuments such as the Parthenon, the Agora, the Acropolis, and many Greek temples.

Mediterranean cuisine

One of the main attractions of this city is its cuisine, which offers a delicious culinary experience of the Mediterranean diet.

Hospitality

Athens is known for its friendliness, and it is well-equipped to cater to tourists from all over the world.

The Acropolis of Athens

While in Athens, you have to visit the Acropolis, where masterpieces of Hellenic architecture are concentrated for you to marvel at their grandeur. Keep in mind that it is a highly visited site, so you should book now to secure access for your visit.

Beautiful architecture

Acropolis means “high city,” as it is located on a rocky outcrop in the city centre. Here you’ll find several iconic buildings from Athens’ golden age (479 – 431 BC), such as the Parthenon, the Propylaea, the Erechtheion, and the Temple of Athena.

Central location

Reaching the Acropolis is easy from any point in the city, so you won’t get lost. From there, you’ll have panoramic views of the city spreading out at your feet.

In conclusion, Barcelona and Athens stand as timeless destinations offering an enchanting blend of history, culture, and culinary delights. Whether exploring the iconic landmarks of Barcelona or delving into the rich historical tapestry of Athens, these cities promise unforgettable experiences for travellers seeking adventure and discovery. With careful planning and the aid of modern resources, embarking on a journey to these vibrant metropolises ensures a truly memorable escape.

Europe

National Police arrests 60 people for money laundering in Majorca

Published

4 years ago

May 28, 2021

Andra Tudor

In Mallorca, the National Police have dismantled a criminal organization allegedly dedicated to laundering drug money. According to preliminary investigations, those involved are alleged to have laundered more than one million euros over the last year.

At the moment, the authorities have arrested a total of 60 people for the alleged crimes of money laundering and false documentation. Although investigations are still ongoing, leading Spanish criminal lawyers have pointed to the possibility of an increase in the amount of money laundered.

In addition to this, specialists in Criminal Law and Financial Crimes such as Luis Chabaneix have pointed out that during the next few days the number of arrests could increase, both in Madrid and in Mallorca. It should be noted that of the 60 arrested, 55 were arrested on the island and the other five in the city of Madrid on Sunday, May 16.

Money laundering of drug money from Mallorca to the Caribbean

According to the founder of Chabaneix Lawyers, Luis Chabaneix, the 60 people who have been arrested by the National Police are being investigated for the laundering of millions of dollars. It is presumed that more than one million Euros from drug trafficking activities have been sent to Latin American countries such as the Dominican Republic and Cuba, and even shipments to the United States have been registered.

In these countries, the money diverted by the criminal association has been used for the purchase of real estate and vehicles. For this reason, the National Police is in permanent collaboration with the North American, Cuban and Dominican authorities in order to dismantle the activities of this group in the different countries.

Likewise, among the main information provided by the authorities, it should be noted that more than 400,000 Euros in cash were seized from the hands of those arrested in Mallorca. Similarly, the police searches carried out on the island led to the seizure of multiple luxury items and accessories, a total of three kilos of cocaine and approximately 60 kilograms of cutting substances.

Two Majorcan companies under investigation

The team of criminal lawyers with an office in Madrid has commented that there are multiple methods that can be used to launder drug money. In the particular case of the criminal organization headed by a nationalized citizen of Cuban origin, one of the methods used to divert the money was international bank transfers.

For this purpose, the use of linked bank accounts of certain front men was a fundamental element. In addition, the case includes investigations of split money transfers through call shops.

On the other hand, through an official statement, the National Police informed that two Majorcan companies have been linked to the ongoing investigation. The reason for this is the issuing of fraudulent invoices for a value close to 200,000 euros.

Through these methods, the criminal organization has managed to launder capital inside and outside the country, legalizing large sums of money allegedly originating from drug trafficking. Undoubtedly, the arrest of the 60 people involved, including the leader of the organization, is a serious blow to the laundering of drug money in Spain.

Economy

Seasif’s Franco Favilla discusses the post-Covid economy and the price of gold

Published

4 years ago

December 19, 2020

Andra Tudor

Although the Covid-19 pandemic isn’t over yet, there has been much discussion on the idea of a “post-Covid” economy, especially with the beginning of vaccination efforts in some countries. With markets throughout the world suffering the economic effects of the virus, experts have been looking towards the future –– and one of the topics that often comes up is the price of gold.

In August, the price of gold exceeded US$ 2,000 an ounce for the first time, driven by multiple factors. However, in November, advancements in Covid-19 vaccines led to a decrease in this trend, a result of the turbulent period we are going through.

“Regardless of the market volatility and the price changes that could occur over a given period of time, the fundamental fact is that the price of gold over the course of 2020 has reached an all-time high, and this, in my opinion, is very good news for the world economy,” explains Franco Favilla, founder and CEO of Seasif, a multinational company active in the extraction and trading of gold and oil.

According to Mr. Favilla, the main problem of the pre-Covid economy was the completely arbitrary nature of international finance. At one time, a ton of gold corresponded to a ton of currency, but since the 1980s, and at an impressive rate since 2000, the gap has widened enormously, so much so that today the relationship between the world’s currencies and gold is enormously unbalanced.

Total gold reserves around the world cover only 30% of currencies. This means there is nothing to cover and guarantee the value of money. In short, money has turned into a pure convention, a pure agreement between parties acting outside the market. Gold, on the contrary, guarantees democracy, because it protects savers and the market, offering an objective value for parameterizing every transaction.

“My hope, therefore, is that the crisis caused by Covid-19 will help to change finance, making it less ‘phantom’ and more linked to an objective dimension, based on gold, with obvious advantages for the real economy. Gold protects consumers, the most important component in any economic system: if you don’t have a market made up of consumers with a certain level of wealth, how can you sell? To whom? Consumer protection must come first, and gold is one of the main ways of protecting them,” states the CEO of Seasif.

Sustainability has also been at the forefront in discussions about the post-Covid world, as countries look towards establishing a more resilient global economy, one able to better withstand such events in the future –– and “green gold” may well be a part of that future. Green gold, in a sense, can be considered the “gold of the future” due to its ethical and sustainable extraction process. Seasif produces green gold, with a department entirely dedicated to green, and has allocated economic incentives to its continued production.

Even as 2020 draws to a close, the future may still look uncertain. But for those searching for greater security, gold may be one of the few certainties left.